When the best case scenario isn't good enough

After the Utah Jazz beat the Lakers 88 to 86 in their first round matchup last month, one of the announcers asked, "Should the Lakers be worried?" Utah had won the game, but the Lakers were still up 2 games to 1. Kobe Bryant went 5 for 24, his worst shooting percentage of the season, Carlos Boozer put up 23 points and 22 rebounds, and Deron Williams hit a game winner with 2.2 seconds left. Everything went right for the Jazz and they only won by 2 points, AT HOME. Should the Lakers have been worried? No, but the Jazz should have been terrified. Sure enough, two games later, Utah's season was over.

With the first month of the 2009 MLB season in the books, let's look at how the Astros have done relative to expectations and see what we can expect over the rest of the season. First, what's gone right for Houston:

1) Mike Hampton's health - When Houston not only signed Hampton last off-season, but said they were counting on him to be their number 3 starter, Baseball Prospectus predicted the best case for Hamption (his 90% projections) was that he would pitch 113 innings this season; he's currently on pace for 191 innings. Hampton is certainly no longer a Cy Young candidate, but the fact that he’s been healthy so far means he’s exceeded most people’s expectations.

2) The rest of the rotation has been a pleasant surprise - Wandy Rodriguez has quietly become one of the best pitchers in the NL this season, with an ERA in the low 2's and almost a strikeout per inning. Felipe Paulino has an ERA under 3 when he starts (and should permanently move into the rotation soon), and even good ol’ Russ Ortiz has more wins than losses thanks to the offense averaging nearly 6 runs a game when he starts. Oswalt has continued his domination of Cincinnati (1 run in 13 innings), and only Brian Moehler, who admirably replaced the injured Brandon Backe as “number 5 starter who makes you cringe when he pitches,” has been significantly worse than expected.

3) Michael Bourn, Geoff Blum, and Miguel Tejada are all flirting with .300 - If you played little league ball, then you're familiar with the adage that says "baseball is a game of failure. If you only succeed 3 out of 10 times, you'll go to the Hall-of-Fame." That statement assumes a .300 batting average a superstar makes, but the problem is that batting average ignores walks, in which case the hitter won. When a batter gets hit by a pitch, it’s debatable who won, but I think on base percent is a good indicator of how often a batter is “succeeding.” When Barry Bonds had a .609 OBP and .812 SLG in 2004, it's clear he was winning a lot more often than the pitchers. The truth is that if you only succeed 3 out of 10 times (a .300 OBP), you won't end up in Cooperstown, you'll end up in Corpus Christi. Or some other minor league town. All that being said, the fact that Bourn, Blum, and Tejada have all been flirting with a .300 average this season (albeit mostly empty 300's), has to be considered a success.

4) Other than Berkman, the big hitters (Lee and Pence) have had strong starts. Hunter Pence leads the regulars with a 854 OPS, a significant improvement over last year’s 784. “El Caballo” Lee is on pace for almost 30 homers and 120 RBI’s. Enough said.

Now, let’s look at what’s gone wrong:

1) Lance Berkman's batting average - Yes, Lance Berkman, a career .300 hitter (who may be on his way to Cooperstown, but not because of that), has been around the Mendoza line all season. But let’s look a little deeper into his numbers: his isolated power, which is similar to slugging percentage except that it only counts extra base hits, is .245, in line with his .258 career average, meaning he’s still driving the ball. Berkman also has one of the best batting eyes in the game, regularly drawing over 100 walks in a season. Based on his walk rate (18% in 2009 vs a career 16%), we can conclude that he’s not expanding his strike zone like struggling hitters often do. His strikeout rate is up slightly (19% this year compared to 17% career), but not alarmingly so. If Berkman is swinging at good pitches, putting them into play, and still hitting with his usual authority, his low batting average is probably more the result of bad luck than anything else. He’s hitting less singles, meaning he's probably finding more gloves than holes right now. Since everything else is in line, we can expect the Big Puma to return to normal as the season progresses.

2) Jose Valverde's ankle –I'm not sure if Valverde injured himself celebrating or pitching, but the Astros All-Star closer is out for the next 5 weeks. The good news is that his replacement, LaTroy Hawkins with a 2.84 ERA, has been pitching significantly better than Valverde (5.63), so this may not be such a big loss.

3) The Astros record – 11-17-1 (the tie being a 10-10 game postponed against the Nationals)

In conclusion, other than Berkman (and Valverde) the individual Astros have performed as well as, or better than can be reasonably expected. Unfortunately their performances still add up to a negative run differential and last place. So if best case means last place, it’s probably going to be a tough season. The good news is that the Pirates starters have pitched way over their head and are likely to falter, so the Astros should pass them soon. And if we’re far enough out of first place at the All-Star break, maybe Ed Wade will trade a couple of our veterans, bring up some young players, and begin a rebuilding process that’s long overdue.