2009 - A season to belive
For most baseball fans, Spring Training is a time of simultaneous reflection and expectation. A time to look back at last season as through the wrong end of a telescope and consider the one not yet begun with a sort of naïve optimism-this will be the year that the boys of summer finally become men, and the men of summer turn back the fountain of father time to become boys for one more season.
But if your team finished last year in the second division, double digits out of first place, and followed that up with the big off-season acquisitions of Corky Miller and a new third base coach, you may not be so excited about this year. Like me, you may have spent the last several months trying to ignore IMs from “friends” like Josh Katz, keeping you updated about your team’s latest news - helpful links to stories about your shortstop’s immigration status or new catching tandem’s .550 OPS last year. But I recently had a revelation; the problem isn’t the Astros’ General Manager Ed Wade nor is it leadoff hitter Michael Bourn’s .288 on base percent. The real problem is my perspective.
This winter, both the Astros and Yankees signed left handed starters. Both players are previous All-Stars, so why aren’t Houston fans just as excited to have Mike Hampton in our rotation as New York fans are to have CC Sabathia in theirs? If you said it’s because Sabathia has 55 more wins than Hampton in the last four years, you obviously have a problem with your perspective as well. Because the right answer is that Astro fans should be MORE excited about their signing, because of the two, only Hampton is a 20-game winner with World Series experience. But don’t worry, because these four easy steps will help fix your outlook, allowing you to enjoy Spring Training with the same naïve optimism of other baseball fans.
1) Focus on statistics that further your optimistic perspective (ignore anything that contradicts it). I learned this trick from the Wall Street bankers who invested billions of dollars in bad mortgages. Actually, I learned quite a few lessons from them. Here’s how it works: This offseason, Astros released starting third baseman Ty Wiggington (875 OPS in ‘08) and are planning to platoon Aaron Boone (683 OPS) and Geoff Blum (705 OPS) at the hot corner next season. On the surface, this looks like a bad idea, which is why we need to dig a little deeper. Since Blum will only play against righties in 2009, we can ignore his at-bats against south-paws, and he’ll be seeing regular playing time this year, so we should disregard his numbers from early last season when he was coming off the bench. We can be confident that Mr. Blum, who had an 850 OPS against righties in the second half of last season, will solidify the left side of the Astros infield-at least until the season actually starts.
2) Take positive trends and extrapolate them. Because this method can lead to “bold” conclusions, make sure you exercise due restraint when using it. The key, of course, is to make conservative assumptions. Since Hunter Pence is the Astros’ best young hitter, let’s use this powerful tool to see what the future could hold for him. In his two seasons in the big leagues, Pence’s homerun totals increased from 17 in 2007 to 25 in 2008. Since hitters usually peak around age 28, we can assume that the 25 year-old Pence should improve for at least another 3 years. Assuming that he continues his ascent at the same rate, Pence will hit 33 homers this year and slug a team record 49 homeruns in 2011. Talk about a reason to be optimistic. Nevermind that our model predicts Pence will need just over 1,000 At Bats to hit those 49 bombs, nor that his OPS will be 439.
3) Dismiss negative statistics because players tend to “regress to the mean.” Whenever a player has a great season, cynical sportswriters usually say that next year will be worse, because players tend to regress to the mean; in other words star players become more average over time. The same philosophy can be applied to replacement level players who put up terrible numbers. They’re also bound to become more average, which for them means an improvement and another reason for you to be hopeful about next season. So here’s looking forward to 2009, with Brandon Backe and his 6.05 ERA, Humberto Quintero catching 15 percent of opposing base stealers, and the team’s league low 449 walks all regressing to the mean.
4) Throw all the numbers out the door. As I hope you’ve seen by now, statistics are meaningless. Absolutely meaningless. So don’t worry about them. Because baseball, whether your team wins 60 games or 100, is played to be enjoyed. And if it’s not fun when your team is losing, then maybe it’s time to find another pastime. Or at least find another team. If you’re interested in rooting for the Astros, I’ve already given you numerous reasons to be optimistic for 2009.
But if your team finished last year in the second division, double digits out of first place, and followed that up with the big off-season acquisitions of Corky Miller and a new third base coach, you may not be so excited about this year. Like me, you may have spent the last several months trying to ignore IMs from “friends” like Josh Katz, keeping you updated about your team’s latest news - helpful links to stories about your shortstop’s immigration status or new catching tandem’s .550 OPS last year. But I recently had a revelation; the problem isn’t the Astros’ General Manager Ed Wade nor is it leadoff hitter Michael Bourn’s .288 on base percent. The real problem is my perspective.
This winter, both the Astros and Yankees signed left handed starters. Both players are previous All-Stars, so why aren’t Houston fans just as excited to have Mike Hampton in our rotation as New York fans are to have CC Sabathia in theirs? If you said it’s because Sabathia has 55 more wins than Hampton in the last four years, you obviously have a problem with your perspective as well. Because the right answer is that Astro fans should be MORE excited about their signing, because of the two, only Hampton is a 20-game winner with World Series experience. But don’t worry, because these four easy steps will help fix your outlook, allowing you to enjoy Spring Training with the same naïve optimism of other baseball fans.
1) Focus on statistics that further your optimistic perspective (ignore anything that contradicts it). I learned this trick from the Wall Street bankers who invested billions of dollars in bad mortgages. Actually, I learned quite a few lessons from them. Here’s how it works: This offseason, Astros released starting third baseman Ty Wiggington (875 OPS in ‘08) and are planning to platoon Aaron Boone (683 OPS) and Geoff Blum (705 OPS) at the hot corner next season. On the surface, this looks like a bad idea, which is why we need to dig a little deeper. Since Blum will only play against righties in 2009, we can ignore his at-bats against south-paws, and he’ll be seeing regular playing time this year, so we should disregard his numbers from early last season when he was coming off the bench. We can be confident that Mr. Blum, who had an 850 OPS against righties in the second half of last season, will solidify the left side of the Astros infield-at least until the season actually starts.
2) Take positive trends and extrapolate them. Because this method can lead to “bold” conclusions, make sure you exercise due restraint when using it. The key, of course, is to make conservative assumptions. Since Hunter Pence is the Astros’ best young hitter, let’s use this powerful tool to see what the future could hold for him. In his two seasons in the big leagues, Pence’s homerun totals increased from 17 in 2007 to 25 in 2008. Since hitters usually peak around age 28, we can assume that the 25 year-old Pence should improve for at least another 3 years. Assuming that he continues his ascent at the same rate, Pence will hit 33 homers this year and slug a team record 49 homeruns in 2011. Talk about a reason to be optimistic. Nevermind that our model predicts Pence will need just over 1,000 At Bats to hit those 49 bombs, nor that his OPS will be 439.
3) Dismiss negative statistics because players tend to “regress to the mean.” Whenever a player has a great season, cynical sportswriters usually say that next year will be worse, because players tend to regress to the mean; in other words star players become more average over time. The same philosophy can be applied to replacement level players who put up terrible numbers. They’re also bound to become more average, which for them means an improvement and another reason for you to be hopeful about next season. So here’s looking forward to 2009, with Brandon Backe and his 6.05 ERA, Humberto Quintero catching 15 percent of opposing base stealers, and the team’s league low 449 walks all regressing to the mean.
4) Throw all the numbers out the door. As I hope you’ve seen by now, statistics are meaningless. Absolutely meaningless. So don’t worry about them. Because baseball, whether your team wins 60 games or 100, is played to be enjoyed. And if it’s not fun when your team is losing, then maybe it’s time to find another pastime. Or at least find another team. If you’re interested in rooting for the Astros, I’ve already given you numerous reasons to be optimistic for 2009.
posted by Michael Austin at
4:46 PM
2 Comments:
Great post.
I think Ed Wade is going to be a good GM for this club in the long run, even if all he does that is worth while is get the minor league system back in shape through drafts.
I'm an optimistic Stros fan. I think you have to be optimistic if you are an Astros fan because we are either making a late playoff push or facing an uphill battle with our starting rotation.
Either way, I like your tips heheh.
Also, your former 20-game winner with World Series experience had an irregular heartbeat this winter. While that may seem like bad news to some, it just means that he's now had a full physical examination and is receiving the very top medical attention from the Texas Medical Center, one of the best in the world. Take that, CC!
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