2008/09 Offseason Primer
Have you ever noticed how supposedly rational people respond so differently to adversity? In what has been called the worst recession since the Great Depression, some teams, like my Houston Astros, are buckling down and eliminating any unnecessary spending. Despite being located in the fourth largest city in the country, the Astros decided Randy Wolf (?!?) was too expensive, and signed Mike Hampton instead. The same Mike Hampton whose seven year contract finally expired, with him making 13 starts in the last 3 years. Although the Astros are probably going to finish in fourth place next season, so it doesn’t really matter who our number three starter is.
New York, on the other hand, decided the best response to a bad economy is to party like it’s 1999. The Mets, realizing that it’s a buyers market for relief pitchers, stocked their roster with three (3) All-Star closers: Francisco (K-Rod) Rodriguez, Billy Wagner and JJ Putz, who will make a combined $24 Million next season. Perhaps the Mets figured that if each closer can save just 35 games next year, they should make the playoffs.
The Yankees, meanwhile, set the market for starting pitchers. Actually, they are the market for starting pitchers. In a time when the next highest offer for CC Sabathia may have been $100 million from Milwalkee, the Yankees raised their offer from $140 to $160 million. Maybe their initial offer of $20 Million per season was based on the assumption that Sabathia would win 20 games per year. After some extrapolating, they decided to invest another $3 million annually to buy a couple more wins as insurance, just in case Tampa Bay wasn’t a fluke last year. I wonder if anyone in their front office even considered that there may be an inverse relationship between salary and motivation. (See Carl Pavano, the aforementioned Mike Hampton, Hideki Irabu, Barry Zito, Darren Dreifort, Chan Ho Park, ect, ect).
Ironically, this “spend first” mentality caused both the Mets and Yankees to miss the playoffs last year, while the Phillies and Rays, who developed most of their own talent, played in the World Series. But rather than examine their philosophies, both New York teams decided the problem was not the approach but rather their intensity, and stepped up spending another notch. Even at a time when they were often only bidding against themselves.
Looking forward, here’s what I expect to happen if the current economic downturn lasts much longer. Mid market teams, looking to trim payroll, will dump productive, high dollar veterans to anyone willing to assume the contract (like the Phillies giving Bobby Abreu to NYY). Small market teams, who usually throw their loyal fan base a bone every off off-season by signing a Matt Stairs, Doug Mientkiewicz, or Reggie Sanders, will find that their $2 million, one year offer attracts a slightly higher caliber player. Mid-tier free agents are going to be scrambling for contracts, as teams decide to play home grown players rather than pay $5 Mil per year for “proven veterans” like Ray Durham and Sean Casey. The owners will collectively cry “poor” while Boras and other agents claim collusion, and the New York owners will keep writing big checks no matter where the Dow Jones closes.
New York, on the other hand, decided the best response to a bad economy is to party like it’s 1999. The Mets, realizing that it’s a buyers market for relief pitchers, stocked their roster with three (3) All-Star closers: Francisco (K-Rod) Rodriguez, Billy Wagner and JJ Putz, who will make a combined $24 Million next season. Perhaps the Mets figured that if each closer can save just 35 games next year, they should make the playoffs.
The Yankees, meanwhile, set the market for starting pitchers. Actually, they are the market for starting pitchers. In a time when the next highest offer for CC Sabathia may have been $100 million from Milwalkee, the Yankees raised their offer from $140 to $160 million. Maybe their initial offer of $20 Million per season was based on the assumption that Sabathia would win 20 games per year. After some extrapolating, they decided to invest another $3 million annually to buy a couple more wins as insurance, just in case Tampa Bay wasn’t a fluke last year. I wonder if anyone in their front office even considered that there may be an inverse relationship between salary and motivation. (See Carl Pavano, the aforementioned Mike Hampton, Hideki Irabu, Barry Zito, Darren Dreifort, Chan Ho Park, ect, ect).
Ironically, this “spend first” mentality caused both the Mets and Yankees to miss the playoffs last year, while the Phillies and Rays, who developed most of their own talent, played in the World Series. But rather than examine their philosophies, both New York teams decided the problem was not the approach but rather their intensity, and stepped up spending another notch. Even at a time when they were often only bidding against themselves.
Looking forward, here’s what I expect to happen if the current economic downturn lasts much longer. Mid market teams, looking to trim payroll, will dump productive, high dollar veterans to anyone willing to assume the contract (like the Phillies giving Bobby Abreu to NYY). Small market teams, who usually throw their loyal fan base a bone every off off-season by signing a Matt Stairs, Doug Mientkiewicz, or Reggie Sanders, will find that their $2 million, one year offer attracts a slightly higher caliber player. Mid-tier free agents are going to be scrambling for contracts, as teams decide to play home grown players rather than pay $5 Mil per year for “proven veterans” like Ray Durham and Sean Casey. The owners will collectively cry “poor” while Boras and other agents claim collusion, and the New York owners will keep writing big checks no matter where the Dow Jones closes.
posted by Michael Austin at
12:59 AM
1 Comments:
Amazingly, ridiculously, the Yankees today (after giving $420 mil to Sabathia, Burnett, and Texeira) could have a lower payroll than they did last year. That just about says it all about how they can (and do) build teams.
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