When is opening day not opening day?

When rain wipes it out after 3 innings. Pujols had a home run, Ankiel had an RBI double, and the biggest miracle in modern history occurred when Izturis reached base in consecutive at bats.

Except that they didn't. None of that happened - musta been your mistake. Because Major League Baseball's rainout rules state that a game that doesn't last 5 innings and gets rained out didn't happen. Instead of resuming the game as it was when nature took its wicked course, the innings played disappear and the team that was down 5-1 when rain set in gets a blank slate at the makeup. That's just dumb.

I knew I could somehow blame Bud Selig for rain on opening day.

Physiology Of A Noncontender

My friend and shopkeeper of this fine business venture, Mike, is correct in noting that the history of the Astros is long and pointless. While 40 years without a World Series victory is the average half-life of a Cubs fan, it's nothing to strive for as a franchise. The Astros debacle of 2005 (swept by the White Sox in embarrassing fashion) was a nice "me too" to the Cardinals debacle of 2004 (swept by the Red Sox in embarrassing fashion.)

But that was then, this is now. Mike has confided in his therapist and come to grips with the fact that the Astros won't contend in 2008. But given the Cards-Astros rivalry in the NL Central, I couldn't let that stand. Here are the seven reasons the Cardinals won't contend even more than the Astros won't contend this season. I'll reduce the reasons to body parts for simplification.

Elbow:

The elbow is clearly the new Achilles heel for the Cardinals. Last season, Chris Carpenter was banged up when he made his one and only start. Not long after, he experienced numbness in his right elbow. After a lot of unnecessary attempts at throwing his way through the problem, the ace of the team finally went in for Tommy John surgery in late July. Why that didn't happen earlier is anybody's guess. Carpenter will be out til the all-star break at the earliest, by which point this whole thing should be well out reach.

But that's not all! Losing your Cy Young winner for most of the year is just part one in the Year Of The Elbow. The Cardinals are treading thin baseball-ice with perennial MVP-candidate Albert Pujols, who has acknowledged that at some point he too will need Tommy John surgery. He's playing on borrowed time, just one tweak or awkward throw from deep in foul territory away from missing about a year of playing time. AP has said he won't play through the pain this year. The prospect of a Pujols-free lineup is making me consider seppuku. It's worth looking up.

Brain:

Simply put, the Cardinals are suffering from brain problems. Extending Edmonds to a two year deal at the end of his career, then dumping him for nothing and paying for him to play for the Padres. Signing Cesar Izturis and his .295 OBP for nearly $3 million. Bringing back Aaron Miles. Signing Juan Gonzalez in a deal that may force the return of impressive Rule V draft pick Brian Barton. The headcase that was Scott Spiezio. And, scariest of all, whatever boogiemen lurk within the psyche of ever-talented but ever-delicate Rick Ankiel, who was an unholy force up to but concluding precisely at the moment of his HGH revelation. This delicate blossom may be Pujols' lineup protection this season.

Arms:

Oh my God, the arms. After Adam Wainright, things go downhill quickly. Braden Looper, Anthony Reyes, Todd Wellmeyer, the possibly-deceased Mark Mulder and Matt Clement…all should serve up more hot taters than Waffle House. Former bullpen stalwarts Josh Kinney and Tyler Johnson are missing and presumed wounded. Scrapheap (and league average!) veteran Kyle Lohse is set to wander in off the streets, probably dressed in clothing made of the newspapers he slept on last night, to be our number 2 starter.

Feet:

As a team, the Cards stole 56 bases last year, 15^th out of 16 NL teams. I think Jose Reyes had that many by the all star break. Granted, stealing isn't exactly the most important element of winning baseball games. In fact, in many instances, the expected outcome of a stolen base attempt is not worth the risk. The team was 11^th in runs scored, probably because it ranked 14^th in slugging percentage.

So there you have it. Your physiological guide to the Cardinals' impending 2008 failure. It's not going to be what we baseball fans call "a winning season." But hold on to your pride, Redbirds. There are always two things we'll have that the Astros don't: A recent World Series ring and a second baseman who won't be missing the start of the season due to anal fissures.

Don't worry, everyone!

We signed Kyle Lohse!

In 2007, Lohse had an even 100 ERA+. That means the number of runs he gave up per 9 innings was exactly, perfectly league average.

That's pretty good for a 4th or 5th starter; for most teams, those starters are below league average. A guy who is average gives you at least a 50% chance of winning; better when you have a good offense. Jeff Suppan once served this role for the Cardinals: Pretty average pitcher, but on a team with a dynamite offense and a number of other low-ERA starters, he won plenty of games. He even parlayed that success into a $30 mil contract with the Brewers.

The good news is, the Cardinals signed Lohse for only 1 year, $4.25 million - below league average. If he really sucks, it's not a crippling contract. If he's decent and the team contends, that's nice. If he's decent and we don't contend, he can be traded at the deadline for some type of (probably low) prospect. It's a good deal.

But it won't work out.

Lohse is the de facto #2 pitcher on a team that should struggle to score runs. If your second best pitcher is the definition of average, pitchers 3, 4, and 5 are all below average. We'll lose most of those games, break even when Lohse pitches, and maybe win more than we lose when our (also de facto) "ace" Wainwright pitches. That's a recipe for a losing season.

Sorry, I forgot to make this post entertaining, or bash Aaron Miles. Maybe next time!